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Sunday, July 13, 2003

For Punters Only

The august NY Times (well, July 13 Week in Review, actually), directs us to TradeSports.com for a look at the betting odds on various Presidential candidates. I can't seem to create a direct link, but look at the menu on the right, and it should be there.

An interesting exercise would be to compare these prices with those in the Iowa Electronic Market, which are here.

With a quick glance, I see that Kerry is at 32 in TradeSports versus 29 in Iowa; Gephardt is 11 versus 17; Lieberman is 16 versus 10; and Ms. Clinton is at roughly 4 in each market. (Briefly, if Kerry wins the nomination, TradeSports contract holders collect 100, on a purchase price of 32; this implies a 32% probability of his winning the nomination.)

So, arbitrageurs need to get busy, although I can not promise that, after transactions costs and interest, the profit opportunity is significant.

For the general election, TradeSports has Bush at 67; Iowa does not seem to have a comparable contract.

UPDATE: Cool New Yorker article.

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